ELECTIONS ARE NOT COMING By Gopal Mishra

There used to be a popular hilarious comedy that Russians are Coming in seventies. It had colorfully portrayed the comical side of those handling US-USSR (those days Russia was a Communist-ruled state). Similarly, media in India is just talking about general elections. If media is to be believed Parliamentary Polls are round the corner, but the truth is even after the left front's dramatic withdrawal of its crucial support, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) Government is quite

The farce of the confidence vote in the proposed brief session of the Lok Sabha has again shown that neither the country's main political opposition, Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) nor the left parties comprising the mercurial communist Party of India(Marxist), Communist Party of India(CPI), Forward Block and Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP). It is yet to be known whether, the left parties will walk out or the BJP. It is quite known in Delhi 's political circles that both the parties do not want to topple the government. The decision to announce the withdrawal of their support during Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh's visit to Japan has further exposed the ineptitude of the Marxist leadership, especially Karat. This announcement is not only embarrassed Dr. Manmohan Singh, but also showed Indian leftist leaders in a poor light before the world leaders. These parties too have lost a sizeable support among the country's educated and enlightened constituency.

The BJP has already announced that it would not table a no-confidence vote. Meanwhile, the Congress leadership has succeeded in enlisting support other political parties such as Samajwadi Party and some other smaller political groups. Therefore, there is hardly any threat to the UPA Government.

However, the current political instability is adversely affecting India 's image as a destination for investment and business. The initial years of Dr. Manmohan Singh paved the way for huge investment in all sectors, especially in the development of the much-needed infrastructure. The world watched this unshackling of the Indian economy from a closed harsh bureaucratic system to an open competitive environment. Dr. Manmohan Singh is the architect of this spectacular growth.

If Indian political leaders do not take corrective steps to give Indian polity its much-needed political stability, India is likely to lose all these gains. There is already decline in the BPO business. The oil prices have created an economic has further deepened the current crisis. There are now apprehensions whether India can continue its current economic growth rate. During the past two weeks, Indian political parties irrespective of their political ideology have been consistent in undermining India 's vital economic interests. There appears to be India under a siege from within.

Interesting Phenomenon

Two cadre-base parties, both the Communist Party of India -Marxist (CPI-M) and the BJP in the country are in a dilemma on the issue of US-India nuclear deal. There is an enlightened, but a silent section within the left parties, which is convinced that Karat and their group have overplayed their opposition to the nuclear issue. The Chinese Government, which is known for its proximity to the CPI (M), has already signed the nuclear deal with the US , IAAE, and the Nuclear Suppliers Group on much humiliating terms. The very fact that the North Korea has agreed to dismantle its nuclear facilities is yet another example of the clout of the US-led consortium on the non-proliferation of the nuclear weapons enjoys even with China . Similarly, the BJP too is in a fix. It is not really opposed to the deal, but it is keen to seek political dividends, if any, by opposing the proposed agreement. Within their political umbrella, voices are emerging on this opportunistic approach in both the political outfits.

It may be noted that with the opening of the economy, the left front's government in West Bengal is keen for inviting more and more investment for its resource-starved industry. Within the left front, a sizeable section is keen that instead of rhetoric, efforts should be made for attracting investment and promoting environment for economic growth. It means, Dr. Man Mohan Singh has a constituency of silent supporters within the left front. It may be unbelievable to most of us.

How BJP Supported the Pak Conspiracy

It is yet to be ascertained how Pakistani elements successfully managed BJP to be used for their political agenda. The Pro-Pakistani Progressive Democratic Party (PDP) of Mufti Mohhamed Sayed, who during his tenure as Union Home Minister of India had released dreaded terrorists to get his kidnapped daughter released, was a part of the ruling coalition in Jammu and Kashmir . It may be noted that it was PDF nominee in the cabinet, who as the Forest Minister had sanctioned the controversial forestland to the Amarnath Shrine trust. It is intriguing why PDF withdrew from the coalition on this issue. If the outgoing Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad is to be believed that on the instruction of the ISI, the notorious intelligence outfit of Pakistan , both PDF and the National Conference conspired to topple the state government.

In his bid to defeat this conspiracy, Azad withdrew the land allotment order. Adopting a myopic approach, the BJP leadership thought that it was a befitting opportunity to make it a communal issue. A rational approach might have given the country's main opposition party more credibility, but this opportunity was lost.

However, there were some differences among the BJP leadership on this issue. In the post-Amarnath controversy, while the BJP leadership declared India bandh, but Gujarat Chief Minister, Narendra Modi, declined to oblige the party high command. He asserted that if the bandh is allowed in Gujarat , the state might witness flaring up of communal riots. According to the party insiders, Modi has also told the party leadership that if the candidates were fielded without his approval, he would not be able to ensure their victory. It must have irritated the BJP leadership, especially its candidate for the office of the Prime Minister, L.K. Advani. Similarly, BJP's coalition partners refused to carry out the bandh programme in the states of Bihar and Orissa. The Madhya Pradesh party unit has succeeded in enforcing the bandh in the state, which led to the killing of innocent youths. Few believe that BJP has gained strength by making the forest land issue in the state of Jammu and Kashmir .

Crucial Months Ahead

India 's political soap opera is getting more and more interesting. While UP Chief Minister, Mayawati, declared that the proposed Indo-US Nuclear Treaty is anti-Muslim, India 's highly respected scientists and architect of India 's nuclear might, APJ Abdul Kalam, a devout Muslim, has declared the proposed agreement is in India 's national interest. Meanwhile, on this issue, Mayawati has succeeded in roping some Muslim clergies on this issue. Whether it is true or not, but most of the people belonging to the urban middle classes believe that the left parties are opposing the nuclear deal on behest of China . It is also quite interesting that none from the political parties is serious to hold debates and discussions on these issues. In the coming 12 months, elections are scheduled to elect assemblies in some of the key states and Parliament. Therefore, political parties are vying with each other in mudslinging. The competition is tough. The electorate is unpredictable…

(Gopal Mishra, president of the APVW School of Media and Policy Research, is also a free-lance journalist. He has served India 's major news papers such as the Pioneer, Times of India, Indian Express and also Gulf News, Dubai ).